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The definition of intelligent trading

Intelligent trad forexdiscountbrokersg by the programmer with the help of a computer programming language, by writing program cashback forex instructions, simulating the behavior of human traders to place orders, to achieve the process of automatic machine trading intelligent trading core competitiveness of information asymmetry (1) asymmetry of a simple description it forex discount brokers said that hundreds of years ago the Rothschilds used pigeons to send messages to do scalping transactions This is a typical information asymmetry, but the information asymmetry will generally disappear with the development of the times decades ago, people can only do transactions to the exchange, usually only see a quote, there is almost no technical analysis to speak of, but then a man named Bill Williams invented a few sets of algorithms, although very primitive, is to take a pen to draw on paper Calculated, but very effective, with only a bull forexbonusrebate bear algorithm, do two months of the S&P index, almost complete victory and today, Bill Williams invented those algorithms have become MT4 official built-in indicators, there is still as long as those indicators to do to follow the market as an ATM thing? (2) the nature of asymmetry market autocorrelation information asymmetry is the nature of what? To say a concept of market autocorrelation this concept is a study of the field of mathematics and computer proposed by a person, in the vernacular probably means: whether it is easy to find the law this graph is its author based on a certain algorithm, the statistics of the S&P index from 1951 to 2013 trend, blue represents the autocorrelation is strong, red represents the autocorrelation is weak conclusion: before 1998, the S&P has a very strong autocorrelation since 1998, the period of existence of autocorrelation is only about 30% of the total time, and after 2007, the proportion fell to 10% Analysis: After 1998, with the popularity of personal computers, the popularity of electronic trading, the autocorrelation of the market became worse and worse We look at a realistic level of things Soross Quantum Fund was established in 1969, until In 1998, Soros Quantum Fund was established in 1969 and has been in existence until 1998, but it suffered major losses after 1998 and was closed and transformed in 2000, and in 2008 it suffered major losses again. It must be based on the premise that relatively few people use the premise that everyone is using the congestion avoidance function, if a place is very smooth, navigation will let the opportunity to take this road people are coming, that does forexrebatesbrokers block also blocked when everyone can apply to this information, the loss of asymmetry Another example: MT4 can only download the data from 1998 at most, so the previous data we have no way to know the single said The market before 2008, the EAMACD that comes with MT4 can change it and still be profitable, but since 2008 the market is very chaotic, no matter how to change it, it is not profitable. (3) almost always strong autocorrelation can be built on the idea of strategic systems in the face of the markets autocorrelation is getting worse, what we have to deal with to maintain the information asymmetry? The solution is to move away from instrumental dependence and build a complete strategy system to discover the deeper and more universal autocorrelation of the market How to understand? As in ancient times people may be physical combat, and then there are weapons, who has weapons who can win, and then we all have weapons, then who has good weapons who can win, and then we all have comparable weapons, who does not have an overwhelming advantage, how to do it? This is the time to talk about the art of war raised to the level of military strategy and tactics this is the idea of building a strategy system that some people will say, even if the construction of a strategy system, intelligent trading will one day again with the development of the times failed? Please think about a problem: calculators can replace the abacus, but the laws of mathematics and science will always remain the same, one plus one still equals two, three times three still equals nine; weapons will be updated, but the idea of military law will never go out of date So, if the same thing stays at the level of tools, it will certainly fail with the development of the times; but if it is raised to the level of ideas, dialectic, it is difficult to fail the development of intelligent trading to Today, it is no longer the level of algorithms, it is already a complete strategy system What is complete? It is like commanding a war, first of all, to determine whether the advantage is enough to fight or not (the overall strategy and the trigger conditions), if the fight, how many soldiers to send to fight (capital management), how to line up the troops (pattern technology), in case of loss casualties to how much to close the troops (stop loss), if you win is to see the good or straight to the yellow dragon (ladder stop), if at the same time there are other war opportunities, we must assess whether it will have an impact on the existing war Impact, there is no room to open a new game, if so, but also just all the process and then open a single stall execution and so on all aspects should be taken into account, this is the prototype of the complete strategy system, the actual design and implementation is certainly much more complex than this several important advantages of intelligent trading (1) quantification of the most intelligent is to do the most foolish "Sun Tzus Art of War" in a few sentences is probably said: can lift A hair is not counted as strength, can see the sun and moon is not counted as eyes bright, can hear the thunder boom is not counted as ears good use of the military often have neither a distinguished reputation, nor a brilliant record, but every battle will not be wrong why? Because in the fight before, has made himself invincible What do you mean invincible? Before each transaction, ask yourself a few questions: based on what reason to trade? How credible is this reason? What is the historical result of trading this way? What is the win rate? What is the profit/loss ratio? What is the risk expectation? Do a good job of quantifying these, although still can not guarantee to make money, but can certainly guarantee to sleep, because the worst case has been locked when you feel to do transactions can sleep at ease, your level of risk control has exceeded the majority of people often heard someone say such a sentence: "Todays market how to do? This sentence is actually very informative: He does not know what to do with todays market but he wants to know something that only God may know He wants to do a market that he does not know what to do It seems that he wants to do transactions every moment, never "todays market can not be touched, the future is uncertain so do not do" the concept of any transaction or even gambling project, is a game model the most effective winning The concept is to place a large bet when the advantage is high, when the advantage is low, place a small bet or do not bet on the implementation of the method, only until the winning advantage of the high game appears before taking the shot if every game to play, the results are bound to die, because the design rules of any game on the average winning advantage must be less than 50% So that you have to put the concept, method, detailed principles are clearly told EA, what can be done, what not Do do trading is not to do antivirus software, antivirus software has the obligation to identify all viruses, but EA has no obligation to identify all the quotes, just identify and quantify the quotes as manageable and unmanageable, and then specialize in attacking the manageable, it is best to quantify to the "except black is white" fool realm only absolute quantification, in order to see the truth of the system can be free to play the more things, the more detrimental to the discovery of problems In fact, trading is like sailing with the water, not looking for greatness, just looking for the boat to reach the other shore safely is a victory to focus on how to drive faster people, generally hit the reef and sink the boat, instead, people who focus on how to avoid the rocks, and finally reach the other shore with the water this is in line with the first Survival after the development of the natural law of sailing with the water, not sinking into There are also people who say that trading is an art, there is no law, how can the restrictions so dead? This sentence agrees, but pay attention to the scope of application, that is the realm of the masters, and we have nothing to do with the ordinary people, only the learnable replicability of things are meaningful trading can be art, but intelligent trading is definitely not art, honest and good quantification is the prerequisite for making money on the ground (2) intelligent trading helps us to find the mistakes in human nature, as well as guidelines for the objective optimal results Please see these two sets of programs I believe that most people will choose option A, not only because A the final profit points most, the main thing is that A has a hook a thousand points of the big single we seem to have little reason to choose B but after a few years of intelligent trading, one day suddenly realized a thing that has been selective blindness: in the long run, B program is more profitable two reasons: big single is not often, want to rely on big single money, have to If you can not give up the big single, usually have to pay because of trial and error and many times the price of small losses, so there is no compound interest to speak of conclusion: small single has stronger autonomy, less and often earn compound interest effect than the big single earn more in fact, the record does not need to be more illustrious, but to be effective illustrious record is the gift of the market, is the pursuit of safety on the way to the accidental gains; but if the illustrious record as the pursuit of the goal, not But if the outstanding performance as the pursuit of the goal, not necessarily the best results, and even lead to disaster to determine the popularity of a strategy is never its earnings capacity, but whether he fits the human nature of the problem, simply cite one of the most extreme examples: when there is a derivatives star fund on Wall Street, no one believes that it will lose money because the core team at the helm of this fund are four fantastic people: the first two are Nobel laureates in economics, and the second is a Nobel laureate in economics. The first two are Nobel laureates in economics, they designed the option pricing model, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, including emerging derivative financial markets, a variety of derivative financial instruments priced at market price changes laid the foundation for reasonable pricing, to put it bluntly is to do the deal is probably equivalent to their own exam questions to answer the paper; the third is even more impressive, the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, financial policy are his The last one is actually the most powerful, although there is no extreme shiny title, but the first three are his deputy who will believe that this Earths strongest lineup will also lose money? But the reality is still the loss of money how to cause it? In front of the crazy market, these three still did not hold themselves, in order to win excess profits, trading a risk they can not afford, super heavy position gambling, the results stepped on the mines when the market occurs lopsided trend, just like the drums, as long as you are not the last unlucky egg, you can always make money but the key is, you have to do is not how to prove that you can never be unlucky, but first Unconditionally think if you are the unlucky one, what to do when no matter how bad the situation will not hurt your vitality have a way to cope with the time, you will be invincible win or lose another story, first to ensure that the most fatal vulnerability does not appear but it is the four invincible guys, but incredibly make the most low-level mistakes in human nature, not to mention the evolution of the best pen, the best eraser, the best ruler, the best ruler. The best eraser, the best ruler, will be able to make the best answer sheet? It does not matter if you are poor, give you a revolver, six nests, only one bullet but do not know where, let you shoot yourself in the temple, if not shot, give you 100 million, you do not do? Anyone who is not crazy in the head will certainly not do, because once this loss occurs who can not afford in this case, even one in a thousand probability is equal to 100 percent of the first principle of trading is always not to trade the risk of not being able to afford, but human nature always seems to be and this sentence against this example is finished then for that chart just now, where is the human nature performance? People like the ecstasy of a large single, in front of this pie, are desperate to eat a thousand points is very cool, right? But trading is not to stimulate, but to maximize returns if not because of intelligent trading time and time again simulation test, it is likely to have been blinded by their own human nature, so that is a major highlight of intelligent trading by science to decide which option is optimal, and then by the machine to implement; rather than by human greed for decision-making, and then by the human suffer from the implementation of (3) intelligent trading helps us to understand the trading The nature of the species is like each person has its own inherent character, each trading species also has its own nature to understand its nature, it is good to develop a strategy to deal with the above chart is a comparison of two non-US species, itself with considerable linkage, although all show an upward trend, and all the indicators of the same parameters, but the timing of the start of the trend is very different, which can reflect the nature of different species insert a Off-topic: now some people, once you see the indicators, as soon as you hear the parameters, immediately out of the spray modified parameters to optimize what is self-deception, the reason itself is true, can never rely on non-stop modification of parameters to adapt to the market to do transactions, such systems are soulless but our indicators and parameters, not to do this with this arrow, not the location of the transaction, only on behalf of identifying the trend, to assist in recognizing Although many people do trading are piling up indicators in the vain hope of finding the perfect parameters, which is certainly not right, but indicators and parameters should never be sprayed into useless things, used to figure out the nature of the trading varieties, it is a very good auxiliary tool through which you can figure out which varieties of trends are relatively stable, which varieties of temperamental uncertainty each thing has its strengths and weaknesses, we should know We should know how to use its strengths and avoid its weaknesses; but some people not only do not use its strengths, but also spray its weaknesses all day long, seems to be very cool feeling, in fact, can only increase the anger trouble, if you think this thing has no value, ignore it is, go to the study of what you think is useful, do not waste time on meaningless things good, next continue to the main topic to make an analogy, if the fish in the fish pond is particularly large, even if the fishing technology is relatively General, can also catch a lot; if it is a pool with very few fish or even no fish, then even the worlds first expert and what is the use? Find a fish pool as much as possible, is beyond any fishing technology to determine the success or failure of the fundamental take the casino size point and blackjack two items on the whole, the winning edge are unfavorable to the gambler but the size point between each game is not related, there is no rule to follow, so this unfavorable is absolute, equivalent to no fish pool; and blackjack between each game is related, with the change of the cards that have been played, there is The blackjack is associated with each game, and with the change of the cards played, there may be a chance to wait until the local advantage is very high and a kill, which is equivalent to although this big fish pool in general there are very few fish, but in fact the fish are concentrated in a corner, you can see the right fishing! (Todays casinos in order to deal with this situation, the use of dealers, multiple decks of cards, as well as the strategy of shuffling at any time, basically restrained blackjack card counting, but this is already another topic) By using intelligent trading modeling to test the nature of each species, we will be able to know which fish in the pool of fish more, to achieve the most relaxed earnings, equivalent to find the weakest opponent to play everyone should not go against themselves, find a Tough varieties to do if there is no intelligent trading test environment, which can be said to be almost impossible to do the prejudice and objective cognition of intelligent trading (1) intelligent trading is just an advanced tool, do a good job of intelligent trading objective positioning, do not deify and superstition "intelligent" the word is easy to make people misunderstand into artificial intelligence an absolute intelligence, attempts to understand the nature of intelligence but todays intelligent trading is clearly It is not the category of artificial intelligence, it is only the relative intelligence, to be precise, is the intelligence of traditional trading, is the human input instructions to the program in advance, let the program to implement the strategy, is an advanced tool once we humans have a fanatical prejudice against something, it will deify it superstition it and when we go to deify and superstition of the same thing, will become its slaves with advanced tools invincible? For example, what was the reason for the unification of China by Qin? Some people say because Qin had advanced strong crossbow and iron smelting technology, but in terms of these two, Korea is the strongest, at that time, Koreas crossbow and iron smelting in the world can be called the first, but the irony is that Korea was the first to be destroyed by Qin if we want to discuss why Qin can unify China, but also from the political, economic, diplomatic, military and even luck to attribute the reasons, and this is not back to the whole system The idea of the whole system again? So that the decisive role is still the system, the tools are advanced is only the carrier of the system if the system itself is losing money, that intelligent trading will not change anything live people with kitchen knives or dead people with submachine guns powerful? This is the truth (2) intelligent trading type selection and dialectical principle some people say that regardless of the positive road or the evil road, can make money is a good road but the positive road and the evil road there is an essential difference between the positive road will be easier to go, and the evil road will be more difficult to go This is the two exponential function graph, the accumulative system refers to the positive road, the depletion system refers to the evil road what are the characteristics of each of them? But where the right way, it may be difficult to see the results in a short period of time, but once you stick to it, it will rocket; but where the evil way, at first you can make rapid progress, because you can rely on heaps of resources to achieve, but the more later, although still forward, but increasingly close to the bottleneck and can not cross the In fact, the right way refers to the intelligence of traditional trading; and the evil way refers specifically to those who rely on heaps of resources to achieve ultra-high frequency arbitrage trading Why say so, because resources are ultimately limited, you are piling up, your opponent is also piling up, the road is one foot high, the devil is one foot high, in the end is that you pay much more effort than before, invest much more resources than before, but can be set from the market profit space is less and less, and must always master the most sophisticated resources to ensure that the information asymmetry, otherwise you will lose the advantage, tired also tired The successful system should be based on limited resources to create as much value as possible; not rely on unlimited resource input to ensure output, which in principle violates the laws of nature Therefore, it is still necessary to advocate the intelligence of traditional trading, in principle more in line with the laws of nature, in reality, the grassroots class can also be profitable, do not need so many resources  (3) the real value of intelligent trading In the better design and implementation of trading strategies said so much, the real value of intelligent trading is what? In fact, it lies in the better execution of trading strategies and can replace unnecessary manual, verify the data that the human brain can not verify, to assist us in designing a safer system to talk about security, the reality is actually very worrying once look at a website EA master ranking, the rate of return of up to eighty to ninety percent, and then look at the retraction rate, no one within 30%, someone even up to 90%, to put it bluntly, away from Explosive position on a step away from the la so obviously does not work to play another analogy, some time ago, passing through the countryside, where many people drive a hand tractor, and rampage, but no one actually accident, this is why? Because the hand-held tractor speed is very slow, even if there is a situation also has sufficient room to deal with but if they go to drive a Ferrari, racing on the highway two hundred pulse please ask what is most important at this time? Safety it! Two hundred pulse collision if dead Ferrari is a lot more advanced than the hand tractor transport, from this can be derived from a truth: the more advanced tools, the more should be collected; tools, the more advanced, but the higher the safety consciousness, so that intelligent trading must be a double-edged sword hope that we can realize that we should play its advanced long, let it better help us control the risk, rather than with this sharp tool, it is Forget about it, even to squander its advanced, kill the red-eyed to spell yield Speaking of yield, please ask everyone what is the master? Some people will say that the high rate of return is the master here to reveal a secret to everyone, a person can earn how much money, not their own skills, are God to face because the market can not come out of the market to fit his strategy, only God knows; but a person can lose how much money, is entirely their own decision to assume that a person, the first year doubled, but the second year only earned 10%, you say his level has fallen. This is not appropriate, because to look at the part of his retraction, the results found two years retraction about the same, are controlled within a small range, that proves that his ability to control risk has always remained the same, the reason why the second year earnings fell sharply because that year the market was chaotic did not come out of the market to fit his strategy, this is not what he can decide, as long as he always maintain consistent excellent risk control ability that he is a master money direction in fact Never see who is a master, only in the direction of losing money can be seen, in everyone lost a lot of time can still control the risk is the master later if someone speaks in this way: "I in the case of the retraction control in the amount of percent, how much percent of the profit" then you can give him a thumbs up, because no matter how the results, at least this is an objective cognitive and control risk But if someone comes up and says something amazing, then he may be showing off his luck, not his ability "once back to the liberation" this phrase is specially prepared for those who had amazing results This goes back to the "Sun Tzu Art of War" in the line: good use of the military often have neither outstanding reputation, nor brilliant record, but every battle will not be wrong Everyone has made money from trading, the key is to have lost money in the end. The key is to finally have not lost back to do trading there is no meaning, is not useful work on this just been lending the topic of intelligent trading to speak of trading itself, because intelligent trading is first of all trading, is trading to follow the fundamental laws of trading, followed by the level of intelligence, that is, objective cognitive intelligent trading this advanced tool, and for us to use what we ultimately want to do? Based on a quantifiable intelligent trading system to achieve sustainable, stable and effective profits
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