Technical analysis of foreign exchange Trendlines (Trendlines)
cashback forex the foreign exchange market to do technical analys forexrebatesbrokers, forex discount brokers forexbonusrebates are often used, but the articles on trend lines are often explored shallow, simply draw a straight line between two points, and then hope that the forexdiscountbrokers will develop along the line sometimes of course, but the actual situation will be much more complex than this, so we borrowed from the stock market The trend line discussion on the foreign exchange market to make analysis technical analysis is based on a vision that prices will have a trend, the trend line is a very important tool to verify and confirm the trend trend line is a straight line connecting the two or more highest prices, the lowest price of the line this straight line extends out as a reference for future resistance or support prices, so many of the theory of resistance, support applicable to the trend line also applies UpTrendline (UpTrendline) UpTrendline is a straight line connecting two or more minimum prices sloping upward, each minimum price must be higher than the previous minimum price, so as to form a straight line sloping upward UpTrendline can be used as a support line, indicating that although the price is rising, but demand is greater than supply as long as the price Still above the rising trend line, the upward trend will not change, once the price falls below the trend line, that may start to reverse the trend DownTrendline (DownTrendline) DownTrendline is a straight line connecting two or more of the highest price downward sloping, each of the highest price must be lower than the previous highest price, so as to form a straight line downward sloping so as to form a downward sloping straight line down trendline can be used as a resistance line that although the price is falling but the supply is greater than the demand as long as the price is below the down trendline, the down trend will not change, once the price rises above the trendline, that may be the trend will begin to reverse coordinate settings (scalesettings) nbsp;If you use semi-logarithmic coordinates (semi-log), the highest and lowest prices are more in a straight line, especially when the trend period is longer, the price change is more so when there are many foreign exchange brokers charts are provided with semi-logarithmic coordinates equation coordinates (Arithmeticscale) to the Y-axis variables change with the same distance to express, whether from 10 to 20, or from 100 to 110, the distance on the Y-axis is the same, but with semi-logarithmic coordinates, the distance from 10 to 20 is much greater than the distance from 100 to 110, because the increase from 10 to 20 represents a 100% increase, while the increase from 100 to 110 represents only a 10% increase The chart above shows EMC Corporation s stock price chart, this stock has tripled in less than two years In the isotropic coordinate chart, the uptrend has to be represented by three different trend lines, but the semi-logarithmic coordinate only uses one trend line to smoothly include the entire trend Amazon.coms isotropic trend line had been falsely broken twice between 2000 and 2001, but in fact the entire downtrend The trend continues, having fallen 60% in value three times in two years, but the semi-logarithmic coordinates show the entire trend very well It takes at least two points to draw a trend line, but the more points, the greater the reliability as a line of support or resistance Although trend lines are an important tool in technical analysis, it is sometimes very difficult to find more than two points to draw the line, and also Not every trading platform provides trend lines this tool if you can not find more points do not force the general need for only two points on it, of course, wait for the third point to confirm the trend line The above chart is Microsofts trend line in November 99 the price of the third rebound from the trend line, so it has been confirmed that this trend line has a certain reliability, to the fourth rebound Reliability and then strengthen, so as long as the price is above this trend line, the upward trend will not change distance between points (spacingofpoints) the distance between the two reference points when drawing the trend line that should not be too large, and should not be too small suitable distance to different chart periods, the degree of price movement and personal preferences to adjust if If the distance between the two points is too small, the reliability of the trend line may be questionable, but the trend is too large, then the two points are related is also a problem The ideal trend line is best between the average distance between the points in the above chart Microsoft is a good example The distance between the reference point 1.2 of the trend line of Wal-Mart in the above chart is too close, so the trend is not very reliable, but if you draw a trend line from point 2 to early February is much more reliable Angles (Angles) The greater the angle of the trend line tilt, the less reliable it is as a support or resistance line a trend line with a large tilt is often because the price moves significantly in a short period of time, and such a move is very likely to be temporary, that is, so drawn out Trend lines are unreliable The Yahoo trend line above has been touched 4 times in 5 months and the distance between the points is relatively even, but the tilt is a bit too large to continue, so the price may fall below the trend line InternalTrendLines Sometimes, although trend lines can be drawn, some reference points seem to be less reliable. But some reference points seem to be not quite in line, or because some points can not fall well on the line, or because the trend line itself is too steep, or because the distance between the reference points is too close, etc., if you can ignore one or two reference points at this time, then you can draw a filtered trend line When the market is more volatile, some prices will reflect too strongly and the formation of a spike, distorting One of the ways to deal with overreaction is to draw an internal trend line, which is to ignore these spikes, but also to be careful not to unreasonably ignore the S&p500 index has been on an uptrend since 94 in July 96, September 98 and October 98 respectively down to the lows, these lows because then These lows were due to peaks in sell orders and represented less than normal price changes. If the trend line is crossed through these lows, the rest of the price will match the trend line well Sometimes there is a cluster of prices that are aggregated together and have spikes in them. The Coca-Cola price reached its peak in November and was higher in November than in October (red arrow 1) If the November peak is used as a reference point, the trend line will have a greater slope (gray straight line) and there will be a breakout in December 98, May 99, June 99 (black arrow 2) and the distance is too close to the highest price in December 99 (green arrow 3) Only after the formation of a meaningful trend line (blue straight line) from November 98 to December 99 was it possible to draw a trend line that was touched three times and predicted a peak in June 2000 (blue arrow) Conclusion Trend lines are a good tool but if not used properly, they can produce false signals Trend lines when broken are best used with other tools to Although trendlines are popular, they are only one tool to measure the trend and cannot be the final arbiter. They should be a warning that the trend is about to change and are more accurate when used in conjunction with other technical indicators.
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