Speculation in foreign exchange to see how countries often published some important economic data
Accord forexbonusrebateg to the size of the impact on the exchange rate, we will be important forexdiscountbrokers data into three categories: The most important data are: 1, non-farm employment data forexrebatesbrokers unemployment rate on the first Friday of each month publ forex discount brokershed last months information it is a barometer reflecting the macroeconomic development of a country, the unemployment rate decreased or non-agricultural Employment increased, indicating cashback forex the economy has turned good, interest rates may be adjusted upward, favorable to the U.S. dollar; vice versa, unfavorable to the U.S. dollar 2, trade balance announced on Thursday of the second week of each month two months ago, it reflects the countrys total foreign trade income and expenditure over a period of time, trade currency inflow minus outflow is a positive trade surplus, negative is a trade deficit if the trade deficit is expanding, reflecting that exports are greater than The amount of imports is expanding, indicating that U.S. goods are less attractive than foreign goods, U.S. policymakers will likely take action to devalue the dollar to improve the trade deficit, which is not good for the dollar on the contrary, the trade deficit declined in favor of the dollar Some countries have a surplus if the trade balance is surplus, then the surplus increases in favor of the countrys currency strength 3, gross domestic product (GDP) 1, 4, 7, 10 of each year The preliminary value of the previous quarter is published at the end of the month, followed by two months will be published twice the revised value of GDP is representative of all economic activity within a country, regardless of who owns the production assets For example: foreign companies set up subsidiaries in the United States, even if the profits are remitted back to its parent company located in other countries, the profits are still part of the U.S. GDP figures are high, indicating that the countrys investment efficiency is good, overseas funds flow easily If the interest rate is raised, the interest rate of holding the countrys currency will increase, which will attract more buyers, thus making it favorable to the countrys currency 5. According to the history of the Japanese government published quarterly enterprise short view report data is very representative, can accurately predict Japans future economic trends Japanese government will be nearly 10,000 companies each quarter for the future industrial trends survey, the interviewees are divided into manufacturing and non-manufacturing, each divided into large, medium and small enterprises, survey companies on the short-term economic prospects of confidence, as well as the current and future economic conditions and the companys earnings prospects See the results of the survey negative numbers indicate that more companies feel pessimistic about the economic outlook than optimistic companies, while positive numbers indicate that more companies feel optimistic about the economic outlook than pessimistic companies The second type of data: 1, capital flow data released two months ago on the 16th to 19th of each month the data is for the flow of funds in U.S. bonds and stocks. The data are for U.S. bonds and stocks, excluding direct investment 2. The current account is published in March, June, September, and December each year for the previous quarters data. If the balance is positive (surplus), it means that the countrys net foreign wealth or net foreign investment has increased. If the balance is negative (deficit), it means that the countrys net foreign wealth or investment has decreased. personal consumer spending increases, the economic situation is improving; conversely, if the retail sales decline, it represents a slowdown in the economy or poor, interest rates may be lowered, the dollar bias negative 4, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released the third week of each month last months data reflect the current price changes in goods, services, etc. consumers spend, showing the change in inflation, is an important indicator for people to observe the country An important indicator of inflation The third type of data: 1, durable goods orders are generally published on the 22nd to the 25th of each month the previous months data refers to the order of goods that are not easily depleted, such as vehicles, appliances, etc., reflecting the short-term manufacturer production and investment spending he represents the good or bad manufacturer production situation in the coming month 2, leading Most of the indicators are announced on the last working day of each month the statistical results of the previous month LeadingIndicators (LeadingIndicators) is composed of a series of 12 related economic pointer group, used to test the overall economic conversion situation, and predict the future direction of the economy on the most effective statistical indicators If the leading pointer for three consecutive months decline, it can predict that the economy is about to enter Recession: If three consecutive months rise, it means that the economy is about to boom or continue to boom Usually leading indicators have a lead time of 6 to 9 months, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce Economic Bulletin Board (EconomicBulletinBoard) issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce, 11 months before the recession can predict the economy to go downhill, while the economic expansion in the first three months can predict the recovery of the economy 3, factory orders reflect the consumer, manufacturers or government demand for future commodity output 4, industrial production announced on the 15th of each month, the last months statistical results are a measure of manufacturing, mining and public utilities substantial output, measured on the basis of quantity, rather than the amount of the index up, representing an economic upturn, interest rates may be adjusted higher, the dollar should be biased in favor of more, and vice versa for the negative 5 The producer price index (PPI) is mainly in the measurement of various commodities in different stages of production price changes in general, the producer price index up for the U.S. dollar is mostly on the positive side: down for the negative 6, consumer confidence index reflects the countrys national bullish degree of its economic development, foreshadowing the future changes in consumer spending 7, purchasing managers index the first week of the month to reflect the manufacturing industry in the production, orders, prices, employees, delivery and other aspects of the comprehensive development of the barometer, usually 50% as the dividing line, higher than 50% is considered the expansion of the manufacturing industry, below 50% means that the economy is shrinking such as very close to 60, the threat of inflation will gradually rise in general, unless prices are out of control, the emergence of unstoppable malignant When the index is below 50%, especially when it is very close to 40%, there are concerns of economic depression, and it is generally expected that the Federal Reserve Board may lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Index, the market tends to Chicago purchasing managers performance to the national purchasing managers index to make expectations in addition to the overall index of concern, the purchasing managers index of prices paid and prices received index is also regarded as a kind of price index, and the employment index is more often used to predict the unemployment rate and the performance of non-agricultural employment 8, personal income, personal Expenditures in the fourth week of each month personal income includes all income obtained from wages and social benefits, reflecting the actual level of purchasing power of individuals in the country, foreshadowing future changes in consumer demand for goods, services, etc. personal expenditures include personal expenditures for the purchase of goods and services in two areas, is an important indicator to measure the consumer spending of residents personal income increased, representing an economic upturn, while personal consumption expenditures may Increase, when other economic data began to appear continuous growth, personal income and consumer spending is greater than the estimated value, the market may expect the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will raise interest rates, the dollar bias is positive 9, new housing starts between the 16th and 19th of each month announced a measure of the countrys construction industry activity indicators, as the construction industry for the economic development cycle of change in the leading industries, foretelling future Economic changes in the rate of new housing starts and building permits increase, in theory, for the U.S. dollar, favorable, but still must be combined with other economic data for consideration 10, equipment utilization rate announced in the middle of each month, the previous months data industrial production on the rate of use of equipment, usually 80% of the equipment utilization rate is considered to be the normal idle plant and equipment when the equipment utilization rate exceeds 95% More than, on behalf of the equipment utilization rate is close to the full point, inflationary pressure will rise sharply with the capacity can not cope, in the market is expected to interest rates may rise, the dollar is positive Conversely, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90%, and continues to decline, indicating that too much idle equipment, the economy has the phenomenon of recession, in the market is expected to lower interest rates, the dollar is negative 11, commercial Inventories reflect the business sector demand for short-term credit business inventories increase, may drive short-term interest rates up, economic development slowed, indicating that the economy may enter a state of stagnation In addition, the central bank or the Federal Reserve officials speeches are also very important and worthy of attention at present the country published macro data are mainly three: CPIPPIPMI, which CPI and PPI are an indicator to reflect the inflation rate Look to see together PMI reflects the current economic situation, whether growth or recession, 50% is the watershed CPI is generally higher than 3% in mild inflation, higher than 5% in severe inflation, severe inflation is negative for the stock market, mild inflation is positive for the stock market PMI higher than 50% indicates that the current economic situation is good, positive for the stock market lower than 50% indicates that the current economy is in recession, negative for the stock market degree of importance 1 Non-farm employment data 2 countries GDP 3 and interest rate-related data 4 trade account 5 CPI 6 retail These data are fixed time to release each data will have the previous value forecast value actual value to see when the actual value to compare with the forecast value actual value is better than the forecast value is good data How to see countries often published some economic data: 1) GDP is the gross domestic product, refers to the annual available For consumption of goods and services value of the composite, it measures the overall production capacity of a countrys economy if GDP increased by 1% over the previous year, it is equivalent to say that the annual growth rate of the economy is 1% but the value of goods and services reflected in the form of prices by the impact of inflation will also rise Therefore, economists like to use real growth to measure a countrys economic growth if the nominal economic growth rate of a country is However, when comparing the growth rates of different countries, it is important to take into account the different economic bases of each country, such as the United States, Japan and other large economies, where a growth rate of about 3% is considered very good. If a smaller economy like China has a growth rate of only 3%, it cannot be considered a good economic development. 2) PPI: Producer Price Index, which describes the price of raw materials, can be used to measure the price changes of different commodities at different stages of production. For example, the data published in the United States is now calculated as the index of 1967 as 100, this indicator is published by the U.S. Department of Labor, once a month, we see that if the published index is higher than expected, indicating the possibility of inflation, the parties concerned will study this, consider whether to implement a tight monetary policy of the countrys currency will therefore appreciate, will If this index is worse than expected, then the currency will fall 3) CPI: This is the abbreviation of the Consumer Price Index This index reflects the changes in the prices of goods and services paid by consumers This index is also a frequent reference indicator of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan used it to measure the extent of domestic inflation in the United States, and whether to raise or cut interest rates to determine the extent of inflation. This index is published once a month by the Department of Labor in the United States, and we should pay attention to the fact that when this index rises, it shows that the inflation rate in the region has increased, which means that the purchasing power of the currency has decreased, which is theoretically bad for the currency and may cause a devaluation of the currency. If inflation is under control and interest rates fall at the same time, the interest rate of the currency will fall instead 4) RPI is the Retail Price Index in the United States, this data is conducted by the U.S. Department of Commerce in the monthly national business survey of a sample of retail goods paid for in cash or by credit card, including furniture, appliances, goods sold in supermarkets and drugs, etc., excluding If the economy is growing rapidly, personal consumption will increase and oversupply will lead to higher prices, which will lead to inflationary pressures and the government will tighten monetary policy. A sample of households to determine the employment situation of the countrys entire working population in the month if there is a willingness to work, but not employed this figure, is the unemployment rate This indicator is a very important economic indicator to the eurozone for example: when the euro started, the unemployment rate in the EU countries in more than 10%, higher than the United States, and led to the euro all the way down in early November, Japans unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, the yen thus broke through the 121 barrier in one fell swoop until the 119 level 6) foreign trade balance figures: This is a measure of commodity trade between countries, which constitutes an important part of economic activity If a countrys total imports are greater than exports, this is a trade deficit, and vice versa, is a surplus If a countrys trade is often in deficit, the probability of devaluation of this countrys currency will be high because currency depreciation, it will make the competitiveness of exports of goods rise, and vice versa, it is bullish on the currency 7) Inflation: refers to the rise in the general price level of a country and the corresponding decline in the purchasing power of that countrys currency Simply put, if the inflation rate is 10%, a commodity worth $100 will rise to $110 after one year, and after another year, $121, and in the third year, $1331 From the above example, we can see This is the fundamental reason why we must use some of our assets to engage in high-risk, high-return investments, rather than simply keeping our money in the bank. Economists divide inflation into two categories: demand-pull and cost-push inflation. The former occurs mainly when consumption in a countrys economy exceeds its productive capacity, while the latter is mainly triggered by increases in nominal wages or by non-wage factors such as raw material and energy prices. ndash; inflation rate, consumer price index, reconciliation of the consumer price index (the main measure of inflation in the euro area), etc.– we can roughly speculate that the countrys central bank is inclined to raise or lower interest rates, and thus infer the trend of the countrys currency is worth noting that if inflation is caused by some unexpected events or seasonal factors (for example, OPEC It is worth noting that if inflation is caused by some unexpected event or seasonal factor (for example, OPEC raising oil prices significantly, or a much colder than usual winter in the U.S. leading to a surge in demand for crude oil that raises the general price level), it is unlikely that inflation can be controlled by raising interest rates. The impact of this indicator on the exchange rate is complicated: in general, deficit finances in times of economic downturn or even recession can help boost the economy, thus potentially stimulating the exchange rate of a countrys currency to rise However, the huge debts formed by long-term deficits, especially external debts, can overwhelm the government and the people of the country, which will inevitably lead to serious 9) Composite Leading Indicator: This is an indicator used to forecast economic activity in the United States, for example, the U.S. Department of Commerce is responsible for collecting information, including stock prices, new orders for consumer goods, the average weekly construction of unemployment benefits, consumer expectations, changes in manufacturers outstanding orders, money supply, sales, production and sales of raw materials, plant and equipment, and the average Economists can use this indicator to determine the future direction of the countrys economy. If the leading indicator rises, it indicates that the countrys economy is growing, which is good for the appreciation of the countrys currency.
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